Your Weekly Fundamental View (Mar 13-17)

Marts 13, 2017 19:00

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Need to know

The main focus of the trading week is the US central bank's (Fed) decision on the interest rate level. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce whether it will keep the rate the same or whether it will adjust the interest rate on the US Dollar. Other key events are the British and Australian unemployment rates and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision.

Coming up

US figure on the Producer Price Index (PPI) is released on Tuesday, 14 March.

The figure shows the change in the price of final goods and services. It is released monthly, usually 2 weeks after the previous month.

Why should you care? The value is a leading indicator with regard to the change in consumer inflation. The previous monthly figure is 0.6% and the current expected one is 0.1%.(*) The yearly figure 1.2% and expected is 1.5%.(*)

British unemployment rate is released on Wednesday, 15 March.

Great Britain will show the unemployment percentage, which is comparing the number of people actively seeking employment in the last 3 months to the total workforce.

Why should you care? Employment figures indicate tightness of the labor market and whether consumer prices and inflation can rise or decline based on the employment situation. The previous figure is 4.8%, and the forecast for the upcoming release is also 4.8%.(*)

US figures on CPT and retails sales released on Wednesday, 15 March.

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) show the potential for the inflation figures to change whereas the retail sales figures indicate the total value of sales at the retail level.

Why should you care? The previous figure for the CPI is 2.5%, and the forecast for the upcoming release is also 2.7%.(*) The previous figure for the retail sales is 0.4%, and the forecast for the upcoming release is also 0.1%.(*)

US interest decision, press conference and economic projections released on Wednesday, 15 March.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) releases the decision on the interest rate policy of the US. The Fed also provides a policy statement which reviews and discusses the economic outlook.

Why should you care? The news event is one of the most important ones in the month. The financial markets are awaiting more clue and information about the view of the Fed on the development of the US economy and the direction of the US monetary policy. The previous figure is 0.75%.(*) The figure is expected to increase this month up to potentially 1%.(*)

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Source: Interest rate development of US over the past 6 years.

Japan announces interest rate decision on on Thursday, 16 March.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) releases the decision on the interest rate policy of Japan, which is an important factor in the overall currency valuation.

Why should you care? Interest rates are a key and critical element of the currency value. The previous figure for the Canadian interest rate was -0.1%, and the current forecast is -0.1%.(*)

Australian unemployment rate, employment change and RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) bulletin are due on Thursday, 16 March.

Australia releases its new unemployment figures, which indicate how many people are actively seeking employment during the previous month.

Why should you care? Employment figures are monitored closely by the markets. The previous figure is 5.7%, and the forecast for the upcoming release is also 5.7%.(*)

Switzerland releases interest rate decision on Thursday, 16 March.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will also announce its interest rate decision on the same day as Japan.

Why should you care? Here too the financial markets are interested to see whether the SNB will choose the same path of rate decisions or will they keep the same direction. The previous figure for the Swiss interest rate was -0.75%, and the current forecast is -0.75%.(*)

Great British interest rate, Quantitative Easing and meeting minutes released on Thursday, 16 March.

The Bank of England (BoE) also is expected to announce its interest rate decision, just like Japan, the US, and Switzerland. Besides the rate, the BoE will also indicate the level of Quantitative Easing. Meeting minutes will also be added to the announcement.

Why should you care? The same importance holds true for the GBP: interest rates impact the demand for the currency. The rise, decline or similar level of rates is therefore important information. The previous unemployment figure is 0.25%.(*) The expected one is also 0.25%.(*) The previous Quantitative Easing figure is GBP 435 billion.(*) The expected one is also GBP 435 billion.(*)

(*) Admiral Markets Calendar