Your weekly fundamantal view

Februāris 22, 2016 10:22

Need to know

PMI and inflation releases punctuate the week and a fourth quarter 2015 GDP figure from the USA will round it off.

Coming up

On Monday 22 February we have US Flash Manufacturing PMI for this month. This early read of MFG activity bounced away from contraction (<50) in January. But it remains in a downtrend from October's figure of 57.9. Why should traders care? The survey provides an early insight into manufacturing activity, a key component of the US economy. Watch EUR/USD support 110.80: resistance 113.60.

Tuesday 23 February will see recent UK inflation data scrutinised by UK MPs. Headline inflation rose marginally in January, yet the core figure fell away. Politicians will want know how and why that happened. Why should traders care? Inflation is a proxy for growth and a major factor in any Bank of England decisions about UK interest rates. Watch GBPUSD support 1.4180: resistance 1.4442

US Q4 2015 GDP figures are released on Friday 26 February. This is an update on US economic growth in 2015. The previous reading came in 0.7% and was below expectations. Why should traders care? Though it's a lagging indicator, GDP data sheds light on the performance of the whole economy and is therefore closely studied. Watch US 10 year note support 129.90: resistance 131.70

Chart to watch: Gold hourly chart

Gold can be viewed as a risk-off indicator. It rallied through early February as risk assets were sold, but has since fallen as equities regained favour.

The uptrend from 5 February has now been broken, but will support at $1201/1199 hold?