Your Weekly Fundamental View (Feb 13-17)

February 13, 2017 12:00

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Need to know

The main events of the upcoming trading week are probably connected to the Fed chair Janet Yellen's who is expected to speak twice. Furthermore, multiple US economic figures, such as retail sales and CPI, are expected to be released. Another important number to keep an eye on is the unemployment rate change in Australia.

Coming up

German Preliminary GDP q/q is due on Tuesday, 14 February.

This figure measures the GDP change in the value of the inflation-adjusted goods and services. Simply said, it measure the value of the entire German economy.

Why should you care? The preliminary release is the earliest available GDP data and, therefore, tends to have the most impact. The previous figure was 0.2%, and the forecast is 0.5%.(*)

Great British CPI y/y is released on Tuesday, 14 February.

The figure measures the change in prices and is regarded as an important inflation data because the British Bank of England (BoE) uses the level for its inflation target.

Why should you care? Price could be volatile in response to the figures released. The previous figure was 1.6%, and the forecast is 1.9%.(*)

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is speaking on Tuesday and Wednesday, 14 and 15 February.

Fed chair Janet Yellen is expected to testify before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington DC.

Why should you care? Fed chair Yellen is expected to discuss the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

US figures for CPI, core CPI and retail sales are released on Wednesday, 15 February.

The CPI figures measure the change in price of goods and services which are purchased in the US by consumers. Retails sales looks at the total sales on a retail level.

Why should you care? The previous figure for the US inflation rate was 2.1%, and the current forecast is 2.4%.(*) The retail sales was previously 0.6% and is now forecasted lower, at 0.2%.(*)

Australian unemployment rate and employment change are due on Thursday, 16 February.

Australia will release the numbers on the development of its unemployment figures, which are people who are actively seeking employment during the previous month.

Why should you care? Employment figures are always monitored closely by the markets. In this case, the previous figure is 5.8%, and the forecast for the upcoming release is also 5.8%.(*)

Retail sales figures from Great Britain and New Zealand are expected on Friday, 17 February.

Retails sale figures are expected for both Great Britain and New Zealand. These numbers measure the total value of sales on a retail level and are inflation-adjusted.

Why should you care? The previous release New Zealand showed a Quarter on Quarter figure of 0.9%, whereas Great Britain had a monthly figure of -1.9%. Great Britain is forecasted to increase to 1%.(*)

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Source:Great Britain retail sales change over the years

(*) Admiral Markets Calendar